Ian Ganly, MD, PhD, head and neck surgeon, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, discusses the development of a postoperative nomogram for predicting cancer-specific mortality in patients with medullary thyroid cancer (MTC).
Survival outcomes are influenced by numerous factors, including stage at presentation and the ability to resect all of the disease. Ganly says the aim of the project was to design a model that incorporates clinical, pathological, and biochemical variables to determine cancer-specific mortality.
The statistical model was designed by using regression analysis. The result was a nomogram, which could be used to predict outcomes, Ganly says. The nomogram consisted of 7 factors that are the most predictive of outcomes. These factors included TNM status, age, gender, vascular invasion, and postoperative calcitonin levels.
The nomogram had a concordance index of 0.77, Ganly says. However, the nomogram was only developed using data from 250 patients and needs to be validated in other populations at other institutions.
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